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UBS FX SPOT VIEWS

EUR
Levels EURUSD:
Support – 1.0520-30, 1.0490-00, 1.0450-60
Resistance – 1.0560-70, 1.0580-90, 1.0600-10
Comment: Anticipated political risk in Europe driving the pair lower. We are soon to enter the twillight zone in March when many will soon be forced to add downside protection. For some it will be directional punts and for others hedges against worst-case scenarios of the current EU structure at stake. Given the high and non-symmetric risks, it is only prudent to put on protection. Regardless of the election outcomes, I doubt it can ever go back to business as usual for the current EU structure. There are just too many unhappy EU citizens and their views cannot be politically coalitioned away. Barring outliers events in the US, I expect EURUSD to drift lower towards the end of the month and by early March, if not sooner, see risk of year-low test sub 1.0390. Intraday, sell 1.0540-60, stop at 1.0580, tp 1.0480.
GBP
Levels GBPUSD:
Support – 1.2480, 1.2440, 1.2400, 1.2380
Resistance – 1.2520, 1.2550, 1.2590
Levels EURGBP:
Support – .8340
Resistance – .8470, .8500 (38% fibo of the move since Friday).
Comment: The pair reinforced the base at 1.2400 (bottomed out three times in the last week around 1.2380-1.2400) and is likely to trade bid as long as it is above there. However with USD still very much in play cable might have a difficult time to trade higher very easily.

EURGBP,

the cross has broken below the 200dma and could now see further downside. I would like to stay short with a stop above the 200dma. Supports look pretty light from here as well, so the risk reward is fairly good on this.
JPY
Levels USDJPY:
Support – 112.62 (Fridays lows), 111.60 (feb lows), 109.93 (daily ichimoku cloud)
Resistance – 113.79 (fibo level), 114.06 (fibo level
Comment: Market still trading in a fairly tight range especially in USDJPY space, focus these days clearly on EUR and EUR crosses, every morning this week we come in and on the opening Germany/France yields are widening and EUR comes under pressure. So as per my Tuesday’s comment, I prefer to be positioned in EURJPY for now, remain short, but lower my stop to 120.35 (Tuesday’s highs) – 100dma right here 119.40.
CHF
Levels USDCHF:
Support – 1.0080, 1.0050
Resistance – 1.0120, 1.0150
Levels EURCHF:
Support – 1.0620
Resistance – 1.0680, 1.0720
Comment: USD still trading bid but the driver continues to be the EURUSD hence putting pressure on all EUR/crosses including EURCHF, however so far this 1.0620-30 remains solid. Expect resistance on the way higher in USDCHF around 1.0120/1.0150 and any move higher should be a slow grind. To me there is little reason why we should be breaking out of recent ranges and so fading rallies up here makes sense while buying dips towards 1.0050 worth a thought too!

AUD
Levels AUDUSD:
Support – 0.7640-50, 0.7590-10 (*), 0.7550-60, 0.7507-08 (100/200DMA)
Resistance – 0.7700-10, 0.7730-35 (*0, 0.7750-60.
Comment: Ranging within a tight 40 pip range. Commodity related natural demand to buy Aussie on dips versus an extended long market letting Aussie out on rallies. Ultimately, I think a moderate correction is in the cards for this pair after its 7.5% linear ascent this year. Everything positive is already discounted into the current Aussie price and unless we see an imminent test past and break of 0.7730-35, then risk is that sellers move their interests closer to the market. Having said that, Aussie does offer formidable relative attributes domestically and geo-politically and a correction, if at all, beyond 1-1.5% at this stage seems unlikely. Remain short here, stop at 0.7730-35, target 0.7600-10.

NZD
Levels NZDUSD:
Support – .7125/35 (100 & 200 dma), .7045 (base 12/Jan), .6950 (base 9/Jan)
Resistance -.7200 (top 20/Feb), .7250 (top 16/Feb), .7380 (top 7/Feb
Comment: NZD held the .7125 support level on Tuesday and has been edging back higher price action torn between USD buying and EUR/X selling. No change in view, the underlying trend is lower I would stick to fade intraday rallies towards .7200 with the s/l above .7250, a break of the .7125 area is needed to keep the momentum going.
SEK
Levels EURSEK:
Support – 9.4350, 9.4000, 9.3800
Resistance – 9.5000, 9.5560, 9.6000
Comment: EURSEK was caught between euro-cross selling and a rally in NOKSEK, but eventually the pair did move back to the pivot level around 9.4500. Not much in the calendar from Sweden and at current levels I can more comfortably say I think we see 9.4000 before 9.5000.
NOK
Levels EURNOK:
Support – 8.8000, 8.7500, 8.7000
Resistance – 8.8550, 8.9000, 8.9300
Comment: We start the day with strong employment data from Norway. Unemployment at 4.4% vs. expectations at 4.7%. As per usual over Norwegian employment data the price-action was fairly muted. The rally in crude combined with a general euro-cross selling story on Tuesday took EURNOK to yearly lows at 8.8000. I don’t think we have seen the end of this move lower and I would play it from the short side with a s/l now at 8.8550.

ZAR
Levels USDZAR:

Support – 12.90
Resistance – 13.20/25
Comment:. Quiet day overall in the Rand as USDZAR traded rather biddish following the moves in G10 on Tuesday. That turned overnight and we see the Dollar being soft again in EM. Still the 12.90 support to watch out for on the downside, topside 13.20/25 the initial resistance.
TRY
Levels USDTRY:
Support – 3.6000
Resistance – 3.6380, 3.6375
Comment:. Still seeing similar range type trading in smaller sizes , with a small net USD buying bias . Some buyers of TRYZAR in the morning session on Tuesday .
XAU
Levels XAUUSD:
Support – 1220, 1212, 1200
Resistance – 1245, 1252 and 1260
Comment: Overnight price action shows buyers on dips in this pair when 1228 was given indicating that the market is still risk averse in this politically uncertain environment. This decoupling between VIX/Equities and where XAU is trading indicates that further topside will be challenged in XAU. Look to buy dips 1225/28 SL 1220 and TP 1245.

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